Romneycare and the Politics of States Rights- The Politicizer

Arguably the highest profile GOP Presidential candidate to not have announced his intention to seek the Republican nomination in 2012 is former Governor Mitt Romney. Early polling from the democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling indicates that Romney is leading in the early states among most groups likely to make up the primary electorate, with the notable exception of “very conservative” voters. This trend is problematic for Romney because the primary voters he is courting tend to come from the most conservative sectors of the party. One of the biggest liabilities for Governor Romney with conservative voters is the healthcare reform package he ushered through the Massachusetts State House. The plan, endorsed by Romney, contains an individual mandate similar to the mandate included in President Obama’s healthcare reform package. This provision requires all Massachusetts residents to purchase healthcare insurance from a variety of plans approved by state regulators but provided through private insurers. Those who cannot afford a plan are able to receive treatment at any hospital in Massachusetts, however if it is determined (via tax information) that someone could afford a plan they are ascribed a tax penalty.

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Where Did All The GOP Candidates Go- The Politicizer

As of November, 5th 2010 political pundits turned their sights from the “shellacking” taken by Congressional Democrats in the midterm elections to the impending presidential primaries. While most coverage focused on the unlikely possibility of a primary challenge to President Obama I was struck by the fact that not a single Republican candidate has formally announced a presidential bid. This lack of hats in the ring is compounded by the large number of prominent GOP officials mulling a 2012 run. Historically, presidential hopefuls have made some statement of intent by this point. For example, in the lead up to the 2008 race former Senator John Edwards announced in December of 2006. So as we approach the primary season, where are all the Republican candidates?

Presumed GOP Contenders
General consensus and recent polling courtesy of The Washington Post and ABC News indicates the top Republican contenders are Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, as well as Newt Gingrich, and Tim Pawlenty. Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is also apparently prepping a long-shot bid with recent trips to Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney, Pawlenty, and Palin have begun the unofficial campaign through their respective political action committees (and in the case of Pawlenty a book tour as well).

Perhaps the annual Conservative Political Action Conference will reveal some of the GOP’s contenders. In addition to being a crucial audience for any potential GOP candidate to reach, CPAC also hosts its famed straw poll. Although none of the victors of this poll in the previous three years have won the nomination, each of the GOP heavy hitters could parley a CPAC straw poll win into a formal announcement later in the month. It would be very surprising if CPAC passes without at least one prospect officially declaring their candidacy for the presidency.

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Commentary from Across the Pond

As I sit here and use the free internet in an English McDonald's I am still blown away by the result of last night's Senate Race in Massachusetts. Interestingly enough Americans are not the only ones in awe by this. At work this morning (a little late I admit from staying up until the race was called for Brown) I received a phone call from my Boss send his congratulations in regards to the "right proper beating" that was administered last night.

While a historic night without a doubt the lesson is not that 2010 will be a cake walk for Republicans across the nation. Instead the message, and one the GOP should take heed of, is that no state is permanently dyed one color, Red or Blue. To win Republicans will have to work as hard, if not harder than Senator-elect Brown, but it can be done. Moving forward the GOP must also realize that you run to win, but that is not an end unto itself. You win to govern. Without a cohesive strategy for governing the United States then Republicans are no better than their Democratic counterparts. One year ago President Obama was inaugurated promising a new kind of politics. Since then two states that solidly supported Obama have become less than certain he is capable, or sincere about the advent of a new America. Voters in Virginia and New Jersey turned to Republicans who offered a message of change and hope to fulfill this promise. Last night the people of Massachusetts did the same. Republicans must not take these gains for granted, nor can they afford to pay passing lip service to the policy promises that got them there. The national GOP establishment would be wise to see what resonates with the American public. Specifically the promise of a better tomorrow, promotion of policies to help during these tough economic times, candidates who promise to be stewards of taxpayer funds, and the wholesale rejection of politics as usual. Don't forget this, regardless of how the chips fall in November.

In London the response has been surprise. It is clear the Republican Party was counted out, however many of the same conservative principles will be judged by the people here in just a few short months when Gordon Brown calls for a General Election campaign. Dubbed "The Year for Change" the Conservative Party is poised to make significant gains, but they too will be left with the challenge of not simply winning, but governing.